Lowering Jail Populations Safely Before, During, and After COVID-19
Jail population reduction reforms are often cited as causing crime increases. Last year, CUNY ISLG evaluated this claim using data from cities and counties that have implemented jail reforms as part of the Safety and Justice Challenge (SJC). The analysis found that jail populations were lowered safely, without driving an increase in crime or an increase in returns to jail custody. A year later, this brief presents a follow-up analysis that shows these findings still hold true.
The SJC presents a unique opportunity to explore the relationships between criminal legal reform, the COVID-19 pandemic, and violent crime. Since 2015, jurisdictions participating in the SJC have planned and implemented data-driven reform strategies to both safely reduce unnecessary jail incarceration and advance equity across the criminal legal system. SJC sites allow for comparisons on jail populations and crime pre- and post-reforms; SJC timelines also allow for a separate look at how reforms were associated with violent crime before, during, and after the pandemic.
This brief presents the most up-to-date data—through April 2023—on the outcomes of individuals released from jails after SJC reforms were passed. Additionally, this brief expands on previous work by distinguishing returns to jail that involve a new alleged criminal offense and those that involve administrative reasons only, such as failing to appear in court or violating a condition of release.
Findings include:
Two years out from COVID-19’s peak, there continues to be no apparent correlation between changes in incarceration and violent crime.
About 80 percent of people who were released on pretrial status were either not rebooked into jail at all (75 percent) or were returned to jail for administrative reasons (7 percent).
The pandemic-era increase in violent crime was not caused by jail reduction reforms; people released pretrial were very unlikely to return to jail charged with a violent crime—about 2 percent of individuals released pretrial returned with a new violent crime charge. This rate has remained consistent for almost a decade, predating reform efforts.
ABOUT THE SAFETY & JUSTICE CHALLENGE
In 2015, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation launched the Safety and Justice Challenge (SJC), a multi-year initiative to reduce populations and racial disparities in American jails. To advance knowledge development grounded in a research agenda that explores, evaluates, and documents site-specific strategies to safely and effectively reduce jail populations and address racial and ethnic disparities, the Foundation engaged the Institute for State & Local Governance (ISLG) at the City University of New York (CUNY) to establish and oversee an SJC Research Consortium. Consortium members are nationally renowned research, policy, and academic organizations collaborating with SJC sites to build an evidence base focused on pretrial reform efforts.